Page 7 - climate-change2013

Table of contents

Context and aim of this guide ..................................................................................... 6

Impact of climate change on marine and coastal ecosystems ................................. 8

Global changes in climate ................................................................................................................8
The changing Mediterranean climate ...............................................................................................9
Modelling change ...........................................................................................................................10
Projected change by the end of the century ...................................................................................11
Impact of climate change on marine biodiversity .................................................... 14

Changes in native species distributions ..........................................................................................14
Spread of alien species into the Mediterranean ..............................................................................15
Mass mortalities of macrobenthic communities .............................................................................17
Population blooms ..........................................................................................................................17
Effects of acidification ................................................................................................................... 18
Effects of sea-level rise ................................................................................................................. 19

Cumulative effects and natural resilience ................................................................ 20

Assessing the vulnerability of MPAs to climate change .......................................... 22

Developing a monitoring and evaluation protocol for the MPA network ................ 26
Why monitor climate change effects? ........................................................................................... 26
Designing a monitoring framework ............................................................................................... 26

Proposed categories of indicators and monitoring procedures .............................. 30
1. Physical and biochemical condition ........................................................................................... 30
2. Changes in reproduction and breeding dates of key species ..................................................... 32
3. Episodic events ......................................................................................................................... 34
4. Shifts in species distribution patterns ....................................................................................... 37
5. Migration changes .................................................................................................................... 39
Integrating climate change into MPA monitoring ........................................................................... 41
Climate adaptation opportunities:
Towards a future common strategy for MPAs .......................................................... 42

In conclusion .............................................................................................................. 44

For further reading .................................................................................................... 45

Supporting climate change programmes
and environmental observation networks ................................................................ 50