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2. Changes

                     in reproduction

                     and breeding dates

                     of key species



                     Increasing seawater temperature affects physiological
                     processes in marine organisms and consequently influ-
                     ences processes such as foraging, growth, behaviour
                     and reproduction. Physiological performance is the
                     principal determinant of a species’ tolerance to envi-
                     ronmental variability and change. As climate or other
                     conditions shift, organisms initially respond on the basis   Loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) in the southwest of Sardinia coast, Italy.
                     of physiological and behavioural adaptations that have                      Photo: J. Cuetos, OCEANA
                     been moulded through their evolutionary history. In this
                     way, they may be able to adapt or acclimatize to the
                     new conditions. If conditions are intolerable, however,
                     migration to other areas, life cycle adjustments or local
                     extinction may occur.

                     There is now good evidence that over the last decade
                     the timing of seasonal events such as breeding and
                     reproduction of many species around the globe has
                     shifted due to climate change. Higher seawater tem-
                     peratures and acidification are affecting physiological
                     processes in marine organisms and will continue to do
                     so, with eventual impacts on the geographical distribu-
                     tion of species (Lejeusne et al., 2010; Ross et al., 2011).
                     Moreover, as temperature affects reproductive devel-
                     opment in many species, seawater warming could re-
                     sult in spawning periods occurring earlier than normal.

                     INDICATOR

                     Changes in reproduction and breeding
                     dates of selected species

                     Nesting season and hatching success

                     In sea turtles, sex determination is dependent on
                     incubation temperature. Lower temperatures result
                     in male hatchlings and higher temperatures produce
                     females. This means that eggs laid early in the season
                     could be more likely to produce male hatchlings
                     than eggs laid later on. For the breeding sea turtle
                     species  Caretta caretta and  Chelonia mydas, monk
                     seals  Monachus monachus and coastal seabirds, by
                     recording the dates of arrival and of the start of the
                     breeding (nesting) season, as well as hatching and
                     nestling success, it is possible to analyse trends in the
                     timing of these events and their potential effects.
                                                                      Evolution of annual flowering prevalence (bars, FP:
                     PROPOSED MONITORING PROCEDURE                    flowering records per total records) since 1973 un-
                     Nesting beaches, coastal caves and other sites should   til 2004 in the NW Mediterranean, upper graph: the
                     be periodically monitored, and the dates of arrival and   dashed line represents the annual mean NW Medi-
                     of the start of the breeding (nesting) season should be   terranean sea surface temperature maxima (1ºC)
                     recorded for each species.                       for the same period. (From Diaz-Almela et al., 2007).



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