Page 24 - climate-change2013

Assessing the vulnerability

of MPAs to climate change

Vulnerability of the natural environment is a multi- The Mediterranean coastal habitats that are consid-
faceted concept which includes exposure (the nature ered most vulnerable, due to a combination of poten-
and degree to which a species, habitat, or ecosystem is tially high exposure and sensitivity to climate change,
exposed to significant climate variations, such as higher include coastal lagoons, low-lying beaches, estuaries,
seawater temperatures) and sensitivity (the degree of saltmarshes and mudflats, submarine and coastal karst
the effect that may result from a given level of exposure habitats, saline wetlands and ponds, nursery sites, cor-
to climate change, e.g. gorgonian populations are sen- alligenous assemblages, vermetid platforms, Posidonia
sitive to a rise in seawater temperature) to a potential meadows, and sites with a high density of endemic,
impact, as well as adaptive capacity, or the capac- endangered and rare species (UNEP/MAP RAC/SPA,
ity of the environment to adjust to climate change with 2009, Table 2). The capacity of each of these habitats
minimum impact through coping strategies and long- to adapt to the interactions of these vulnerabilities with
term adaptation (Füssel, 2007). non-climate threats and stressors will then determine
the future magnitude of adverse effects (IPCC, 2007b,
p. 883).

The vulnerability of an MPA to climate change will thus
Non-climate drivers: refers to those depend on a range of factors, such as the sensitivity of
current or future pressures impacting the site, the degree of exposure and its adaptive capac-
species and natural systems that ity. It will therefore be specific to a given location, spe-
do not derive from climate change cies or community and depend on its ecological and
such as urbanisation and pollution. socio-economic characteristics.

Conducting a vulnerability assessment for a specific site
can focus attention on particular management actions
that can be useful for MPA managers and other users.
As previously explained, climate change impacts result The assessment should evaluate impacts caused by cli-
from the interaction between climate and non-climate mate and non-climate drivers, such as changes in sea
drivers and have significant regional variations. Obvi- level, storms, temperature and sedimentation patterns.
ously, some Mediterranean MPAs will be more severely The approach to be used will ultimately depend on the
affected by climate change than others, but they may objective of the vulnerability assessment (EEA Report
eventually lose their resilience and in particular their No 12/2012). For example, in an MPA one could begin
capacity to adapt to the changing climate, particularly by identifying the areas most vulnerable to sea-level rise
if they are surrounded by a dense human population and those in particularly critical zones, and then exam-
or feel the effects of tourism and other human-related ine the potential combined impacts of other stressors.
pressures.
Different tools may be used for vulnerability assess-
ments at different spatial and temporal scales, in dif-
Vulnerability to climate change depends on exposure, ferent regions and for different management purposes,
sensitivity and adaptive capacity. (From Allen Consult- based on the information and data available (see MPA
ing, 2005, based on IPCC, 2001). Case Study 1). A range of methods (including indicator-,
index-, GIS- and model-based methods) for assess-
ing vulnerability to climate change are outlined in the
ETC CCA Technical Paper 1/2011. Index- and indicator-
based approaches (including related GIS applications)
are simple methods that can provide a ‘first-look’ as-
sessment to identify priority vulnerable coastal areas
and can also be useful for informing stakeholders. GIS-
based decision support systems (DSS) can be used to
investigate multiple climate change impacts on coastal
areas, with prioritization of vulnerable locations and
analysis of data uncertainties; while methods based on
dynamic computer models are important tools for ana-
lysing and mapping the likelihood of climate change and
the associated vulnerability of coastal systems. MPA
managers rarely use many of these tools and could
therefore benefit from assistance from research institu-
tions, consultancy companies or universities.

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