Page 11 - Assessment

D. Melaku Canu et al. / Marine Pollution Bulletin xxx (2015) xxx–xxx 11
hazard assessment that could be used to inform MSP, ICZM and The simulations take into account multiple potential sources
IMCAM processes. and different release times to consider the variability in response
Indeed, it is obvious that if a spill occurs, the released oil will times and hazard at the coast due to variability in atmospheric
move somewhere. Information on the most likely trajectories of and oceanographic conditions, taking into account the likelihood
the oil drift and where it is more likely to strand can significantly of these scenarios.
improve planning mitigation strategies. Oil operators, decision makers, and spatial planners can use the
The methodology presented in this work exemplifies how a methodology and the information provided here as inputs for man-
numerical model can be used to this aim. The hazard and risk agement, planning and decision processes. Outcomes of the pre-
indexes computed provide initial information, which is crucial to sent study could be of use in the development of local operation
inform a proper integrated oil spill risk analysis for the SCH coasts. plans to protect against marine pollution by oil or other toxic sub-
This information should be combined with additional sensitivity stances, in Maritime Spatial Planning and in Integrated Coastal
layers that, depending on the specific scope of the assessment, Zone Management. Moreover, the methodology and related out-
can take into account, for example, the occurrence of sensitive geo- comes could contribute to the formulation of the emergency
morphologic environments (Alves et al., 2014; Olita et al., 2012a) response plans (2013/30/EU Directive), which should be made
or the presence of cultural heritage sites or other human settle- available to the Commission, to potentially impacted Member
ments to support and inform ecological based spatial planning States, and to the public.
along the coast. As mentioned above, risk assessment can be continuously
The finite element approach followed here is particularly well refined by incorporating new vulnerability layers related to geo-
suited for dealing with fine scale processes. Thus, it can be used morphology, land use, environmental sensibility, land cover and
to inform not only the management and conservation plans devel- so on as well as in response to other potential sources, such as
oped at the basin scale but also local scale evaluations. major ship routes, oil production and exploration platforms of
The seasonal representation enables simulation of the effects of neighbouring countries and deep water oil spills.
seasonal hydrodynamic features on the oil slicks at the coast and is
therefore preferred over climatological representations, which, by Acknowledgment
averaging physical forcing, tend to underestimate local hazards.
Clearly, more accurate results could be obtained by incorporat- This research was partly funded by WWF Italy and with the
ing different assumptions, a more detailed oil model, and more contribution of RITMARE flagship Project, funded by MIUR under
accurate boundary and initial condition data. Indeed, considering the NRP 2011–2013, approved by the CIPE Resolution 2/2011 of
the social and economic relevance of the topic studied, it is impor- 23.03.2011.
tant to stress that our results are preliminary and must not be used
as a comprehensive risk analysis, which would require the inclu- References
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Please cite this article in press as: Melaku Canu, D., et al. Assessment of oil slick hazard and risk at vulnerable coastal sites. Mar. Pollut. Bull. (2015), http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2015.03.006