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Fig. 9. The estimated eustatic sea-level change from the Italian data appears to be representative of the plain. At Egnazia
for the past 7000 years. The observational data has been grouped (24) the tectonically corrected observation lies below the
according to whether they are terrestrial, marine or transitional model-predicted value and this would suggest that this
indicators of sea level. The solid line refers to the ‘global’ estimate from site was one of subsidence rather than of a slow uplift as
Lambeck (2002). assumed above.
Fig. 11 summarizes our best estimates of the tectonic
vertical motions for the Holocene period. The results are
based on the MIS 5.5 evidence where there is agreement
between these rates and the Holocene data, or on the
Holocene averages where the estimates for the two
epochs are significantly different. These results must be
considered preliminary because of the varying quality of
some of the data used and because in the northern
Adriatic they are based on interpolations between
uncertain data points. However, the results do reveal
some trends that can be regionally characterized as
follows. (i) Subsidence along the northern Adriatic
coast, ranging from B1 mm yrÀ1 in the Po River delta at
Conselice (26) to about 0.3 mm yrÀ1 at Grado (29) and
Aquilleia (30) but relative stability offshore (25). (ii)
Primarily coastal stability along the Tyrrhenian coast
from the plain of Versillia (1) to Palinuro (12) although
small regions of uplift occur at Punta della Vipera (5)
and the Rome Plain (6) and again at Volturno (10) and
Pozzuoli (11) and subsidence may occur at Fondi (9).
Evidence from the French Mediterranean coast indi-
cates that this zone of stability extends at least as far as
Marseilles (Lambeck and Bard, 2000). (iii) Uplift in
eastern Sicily, Calabria and Basilicata with uplift rates
increasing from near zero at Egnazia (24) to a maximum
of B2 mm yrÀ1 at Taormina (15) in the Messina Strait.
(iv) Tectonic stability in western Sicily and Sardinia. The
sea-level evidence from Corsica also points to tectonic
stability of this island on the Holocene time scale
(Lambeck and Bard, 2000).
6.2. Predictions of sea-level change and shoreline
evolution
Fig. 10. Comparison of the tectonically corrected observed sea levels With the above revisions of the tectonic corrections
with the predicted values at Fondi (9). for Taormina and Scilla and with the revised eustatic
function, the comparison of the observed and predicted
In the discussion of the data from Sybaris (23) it was sea-level changes are in good agreement as illustrated in
noted that the plain was fault bounded and that the Fig. 6c. The latter provide a satisfactory description of
tectonic correction was based on the elevation of MIS central Mediterranean sea-level change for tectonically
5.5 features inland from the plain. However, the stable regions or for those regions for which tectonic
agreement between tectonically corrected and predicted uplift or subsidence rates have been independently
sea levels is satisfactory and the estimated tectonic rate determined. Thus the model should serve as a useful
interpolation for sea level between the fragmentary
pieces of observational evidence. Fig. 12 illustrates the
results for the isobases of sea-level change at selected
epochs for the Italian Peninsula and its adjacent seas.
They are based on the revised eustatic sea-level function
and the accuracy estimates can be estimated from (2).
Results for other epochs are available at http://
wwwrses.anu.edu.au/geodynamics. The dominant
